Monday, June 07, 2004
Stock Market
One of the worst things about being bullish is that one suddenly finds
himself allied with a lot of empty suits appearing on television. If
those perma-bulls are overly optimistic, it always makes me nervous
about my buy signals. However, it seems that most of the usual bulls
on TV are now calling for a sideways market because 1) earnings
aren't due out for a few weeks, 2) the price of oil is high, 3) there are
continuing problems in Iraq, and 4) interest rates are going to rise.
Frankly, their attitude makes me even more bullish. None of those
reasons are valid, in my opinion. Oil, Iraq, and interest rates have
already been factored into this market -- to a certain extent, at least.
Furthermore, we've shown that earnings announcements and the
performance of the stock market are not directly linked (in fact, one
would say that's true for the long term as well as the short term). In
any case, anything that gives the market a "wall of worry" to climb, is
good because it reduces bullish sentiment. We can't be contrarily
bullish if everyone else is bullish, too.
There hasn't been a lot of change in most of our indicators, save
for put-call ratios. For example, prices of the major indices have held
above support (1105 for $SPX, 537 for $OEX). As long as those
levels aren't violated on the downside, we'd consider the charts to be
bullish (Figure 1).
Both the standard and weighted equity-only put-call ratios gave
buy signals in recent days (see charts, above). The weighted chart
(above, center) is the most obvious in that it has dropped sharply from
its recent peak a clear buy signal. The standard ratio (chart, above
left) is declining more slowly, but our computer projections verify that
this is, indeed, a peak on the chart and thus a buy signal as well. It is
important to have these sentiment indicators in the bullish camp.
Other important broad market put call ratios, such as $OEX, $NDX,
QQQ, and the S&P 500 futures option rates -- all of the weighted
variety -- are on buy signals as well.
Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) gave buy signals when they
fell below 18 recently. They have remained subdued, although there
has been a little rise in these indices in the last couple of days. A slight
rise is fine, but if they were to rise above the 17.50 to 18.00 area, that
would negate the current buy signals.
Finally, market breadth has remained quite bullish. It
is not a problem that this indicator is overbought, for a new bull phase
often displays overbought readings -- especially as far as breadth is
concerned.
So, everything remains positive in general. We are looking for
$OEX to advance to the 560 in short order.
To receive the complete commentary plus reccomendations visit here: http://www.optionstrategist.com/offers/strategist.htm
Note: Use the following link to view this week's charts:http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/advisories/hotline/charts.asp
Congratulations Larry!
Finalist in the "2003 Reader's Choice Awards"
voted by readers of
---------------------------------------------------------------
Larry McMillan SEMINARS ON CD ROM
For course outlines, or details, please view here: http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/seminars/online/cd.htm
Course
NOVICE SEMINARS
Option Basics
Basic Spreads & Straddles
Covered Call Writing
Naked Option Writing
Speculative Option Buying
INTERMEDIATE SEMINARS
Advanced Spread Trading
Expiration and Program Trading
LEAPS Strategies
Predicting Takeovers and Other Corporate News Events
Using Put-Call Ratios
ADVANCED SEMINARS
Insurance Using Options
Intermarket Spreads & Pairs Trading
Option Modeling and "The Greeks"
Structured Products
Why Trade Volatility - Part 1
Why Trade Volatility - Part 2
All topics are available on CD ROM!
To Buy a CD Seminar Log On To http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/seminars/online/cd.htm
or
Phone (800)724-1817
Cost $49 per CD, or $129 for three CD's
**Course outlines & details available at
http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/seminars/online/cd.htm
This is an opt in free email. All recipients of this email have either purchased products from McMillian Analysis or requested this message be sent. This list will not be sold or shared with any other companies. Please do not reply to this message. Send all responses to: info@optionstrategist.com
One of the worst things about being bullish is that one suddenly finds
himself allied with a lot of empty suits appearing on television. If
those perma-bulls are overly optimistic, it always makes me nervous
about my buy signals. However, it seems that most of the usual bulls
on TV are now calling for a sideways market because 1) earnings
aren't due out for a few weeks, 2) the price of oil is high, 3) there are
continuing problems in Iraq, and 4) interest rates are going to rise.
Frankly, their attitude makes me even more bullish. None of those
reasons are valid, in my opinion. Oil, Iraq, and interest rates have
already been factored into this market -- to a certain extent, at least.
Furthermore, we've shown that earnings announcements and the
performance of the stock market are not directly linked (in fact, one
would say that's true for the long term as well as the short term). In
any case, anything that gives the market a "wall of worry" to climb, is
good because it reduces bullish sentiment. We can't be contrarily
bullish if everyone else is bullish, too.
There hasn't been a lot of change in most of our indicators, save
for put-call ratios. For example, prices of the major indices have held
above support (1105 for $SPX, 537 for $OEX). As long as those
levels aren't violated on the downside, we'd consider the charts to be
bullish (Figure 1).
Both the standard and weighted equity-only put-call ratios gave
buy signals in recent days (see charts, above). The weighted chart
(above, center) is the most obvious in that it has dropped sharply from
its recent peak a clear buy signal. The standard ratio (chart, above
left) is declining more slowly, but our computer projections verify that
this is, indeed, a peak on the chart and thus a buy signal as well. It is
important to have these sentiment indicators in the bullish camp.
Other important broad market put call ratios, such as $OEX, $NDX,
QQQ, and the S&P 500 futures option rates -- all of the weighted
variety -- are on buy signals as well.
Volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) gave buy signals when they
fell below 18 recently. They have remained subdued, although there
has been a little rise in these indices in the last couple of days. A slight
rise is fine, but if they were to rise above the 17.50 to 18.00 area, that
would negate the current buy signals.
Finally, market breadth has remained quite bullish. It
is not a problem that this indicator is overbought, for a new bull phase
often displays overbought readings -- especially as far as breadth is
concerned.
So, everything remains positive in general. We are looking for
$OEX to advance to the 560 in short order.
To receive the complete commentary plus reccomendations visit here: http://www.optionstrategist.com/offers/strategist.htm
Note: Use the following link to view this week's charts:http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/advisories/hotline/charts.asp
Congratulations Larry!
Finalist in the "2003 Reader's Choice Awards"
voted by readers of
---------------------------------------------------------------
Larry McMillan SEMINARS ON CD ROM
For course outlines, or details, please view here: http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/seminars/online/cd.htm
Course
NOVICE SEMINARS
Option Basics
Basic Spreads & Straddles
Covered Call Writing
Naked Option Writing
Speculative Option Buying
INTERMEDIATE SEMINARS
Advanced Spread Trading
Expiration and Program Trading
LEAPS Strategies
Predicting Takeovers and Other Corporate News Events
Using Put-Call Ratios
ADVANCED SEMINARS
Insurance Using Options
Intermarket Spreads & Pairs Trading
Option Modeling and "The Greeks"
Structured Products
Why Trade Volatility - Part 1
Why Trade Volatility - Part 2
All topics are available on CD ROM!
To Buy a CD Seminar Log On To http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/seminars/online/cd.htm
or
Phone (800)724-1817
Cost $49 per CD, or $129 for three CD's
**Course outlines & details available at
http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/seminars/online/cd.htm
This is an opt in free email. All recipients of this email have either purchased products from McMillian Analysis or requested this message be sent. This list will not be sold or shared with any other companies. Please do not reply to this message. Send all responses to: info@optionstrategist.com
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